PLN as of 29 Oct, NBP rate<\/strong><\/td>\n| \u00a31 = 5.1747; \u20ac1= 4.3043; \u00a0$1 =4.0770<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Commentary<\/strong><\/p>\nPoland\u2019s GDP growth in the year to Q3 2024 was 2.7%, down from 3.2% in the year to Q2. While the figures, reflecting lower investment and consumption are disappointing, analysts expect Q4 will see a bound back. CPI inflation fell in November\u2019s flash estimate to 4.6%, down from October\u2019s 5.0%, but again a bounce back is expected in December, with inflation expected to peak around 5.2% in Q1 2025, before making a significant retreat in H2 2025, once the base effect of this year\u2019s ending of the energy price cap works through.<\/p>\n Poland\u2019s unemployment has fallen to a record low and remains the second-lowest in the EU after Czechia, and real wage growth \u2013 though slower than in previous months \u2013 continues to put more money in consumers\u2019 pockets. Retail sales rose in October,<\/p>\n The past month saw the Polish zloty gain ground against the pound, euro and dollar, once the markets had digested news of Trump\u2019s win.<\/p>\n Above-inflation wage growth has been a feature of the Polish labour market for several years, and the politically driven minimum wage is seen as problematic by manufacturers with large blue-collar workforces. From 1 January 2025, the statutory minimum wage will rise by a further 8.5% from 4,300 z\u0142 a month gross to 4,666z\u0142 at a time when inflation is expected to be still around 5%.<\/p>\n Although the Polish government, formed a year ago, is seen as more business-friendly in its rhetoric, it is difficult to point to specific improvements in the overall business environment \u2013 other than the end of a constant stream of unpredictable and poorly considered legislation being pumped out by the parliament. However, given the fact that the government is, in effect, a coalition of three coalitions, and that the president represents the parliamentary opposition, this state of affairs is to be expected. The presidential election takes place in May 2025.<\/p>\n Questions facing investors in Poland centre around the future of Russian aggression; an end to hostilities would signal a major reconstruction boom in Ukraine, with Poland a natural logistics platform and partner for that process. Another area of uncertainty is the state of Western Europe\u2019s \u2013 specifically Germany\u2019s \u2013 economic prospects, as Poland\u2019s manufacturing depends heavily on those markets. Trade in goods for the first half of 2024 show Poland with a tiny surplus of \u20ac4.6 billion; the value of goods exported falling faster than that of imports. As of the first eight months of 2024, the UK is Poland\u2019s only Top Five export market to be growing both in value and in terms of its share in the overall structure of Polish exports.<\/p>\n Demographics and the labour market<\/p>\n<\/strong>Unemployment is likely to stay near record low levels; while firms are less likely to be recruiting this year, fewer young Poles will be entering the labour market. Wage pressure is likely to continue as retention of skilled employees continues to be a big worry for firms. Poland\u2019s largest age cohort, born in 1983, reaches the age of 41 this year (around 700,000 people); compare this demographic high-water mark to the number of 21-year-olds, born in 2003 \u2013 a mere 350,000. The number of labour-market entrants will continue to fall (280,000 Poles were born in 2023).<\/p>\n Poland\u2019s unemployment is lowest in the cities and highest in rural areas. More than half of the long-term unemployed live in villages. Big disparities exist between cities where unemployment is extremely low (Katowice 1.0%, Pozna\u0144 1.1%, Warsaw 1.4%, Wroc\u0142aw 1.6%, Krak\u00f3w 2.0%, and Gda\u0144sk 2.6%), and small provincial towns where it remains in double digits. Szyd\u0142owiec district, 120km south of Warsaw, also in Mazowsze province, holds the record for Poland at 23.3%. Nearby Radom, a city of 200,000 people, also has high unemployment at 9.5%. New investors might wish to consider university cities such as \u0141\u00f3d\u017a (4.5%), Rzesz\u00f3w (4.0%), Lublin (3.9%) or Kielce (4.5%). All data from Oct 2024.<\/p>\n Unemployment fell in September Lublin (down 0.3 percentage points), Wroc\u0142aw (down 0.1 percentage point); in other cities it\u2019s stable.<\/p>\n The zloty<\/p>\n<\/strong>Although Poland notionally signed up to join the eurozone as part of its EU Accession Treaty, there was no mention of when, or at what rate. To do so, Poland must alter its constitution, which needs a two-thirds parliamentary majority. So Poland continues to linger on the fringes of the EU\u2019s core \u2013 and \u2013 importantly for its manufactured exports \u2013 it can control the competitiveness of its currency. The Brexit referendum resulted in a dramatic fall in value of the pound against the zloty. From June to October 2016, the pound fell from 5.60z\u0142 to 4.80z\u0142, a 14% drop. Since then, it has recovered; fluctuations result more from political turbulence than macroeconomic fundamentals. Over the past month, the zloty\/pound rate has continued to weaken against the pound, trading in the band 5.15z\u0142 and 5.25z\u0142 to the pound, as markets considered the implications of deepening debt and rising public-sector borrowing needs in the years 2025-28.<\/p>\n A weaker zloty makes Polish exports more competitive as well as boosting Poland\u2019s attractiveness as a location for inbound foreign direct investment.<\/p>\n UK-Polish trade<\/strong><\/p>\nOn the surface, Brexit has not hampered trade between Poland and the UK, with 2023 seeing record values of goods and services traded between the two economies. However, UK exports to Poland now include significant sales of fossil fuels substituting those Poland used to buy from Russia. Polish export growth to the UK mainly comes from larger exporters successfully replacing goods from Western European SMEs which no longer trade with the UK because of frictions arising due to the UK\u2019s departure from the single European market and Customs Union. These have made it much harder for small business to trade profitably with a third country.<\/p>\n Links:<\/strong><\/p>\nGUS<\/a> (Statistics Poland) English-language pages
\nCentral Bank of Poland<\/a> English-language pages
\nEurostat<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The big picture for UK and foreign investors interested in Poland. Key macroeconomic indicators updated monthly. [GUS = G\u0142\u00f3wny Urz\u0105d Statistyczny \u2013 Statistics Poland] CPI inflation (y\/y, Nov 24, GUS, flash estimate) 4.6% Unemployment (claimant rate Oct 24, GUS) 4.9% Unemployment (econ. inactive, Eurostat, Aug 24) 2.9% GDP growth 2023 (y\/y GUS, final) 0.1% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24251,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"The big picture for UK and foreign investors interested in Poland. Key macroeconomic indicators updated monthly. [GUS = G\u0142\u00f3wny Urz\u0105d Statistyczny \u2013 Statistics Poland]\r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nCPI inflation<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (y\/y, Nov 24, GUS, flash estimate)<\/td>\r\n | 4.6%<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nUnemployment<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (claimant rate Oct 24, GUS)<\/td>\r\n | 4.9%<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nUnemployment<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (econ. inactive, Eurostat, Aug 24)<\/td>\r\n | 2.9%<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nGDP growth 2023<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (y\/y GUS, final)<\/td>\r\n | 0.1%<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nGDP growth latest <\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (y\/y to Q3 24 preliminary, GUS)<\/td>\r\n | 2.7%<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nGDP growth 2024 forecast<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (European Commission, Oct 24)<\/td>\r\n | 3.0%<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nRetail sales<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (y\/y to Oct 24, GUS)<\/td>\r\n | 1.3%<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nExport of goods<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (H1 24, down 3.3% on H1 23, GUS)<\/td>\r\n | \u20ac174 billion<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nImport of goods<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (H1 24, down 2.1% on H1 23, GUS)<\/td>\r\n | \u20ac169 billion<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nAverage wages (private sector, monthly, gross)<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (GUS, Oct 24 \u2013 up 10.2% y-o-y)<\/td>\r\n | 8,317 PLN\r\n(=\u20ac1,930 \/ \u00a31,605)<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nStatutory Minimum Wage (full-time, monthly, gross)<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (from 1.7.24; up 1.3% from 1.1.24; when it stood at 4,242 PLN)<\/td>\r\n | 4,300 PLN\r\n(=1,000 \/ \u00a3830)<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nNBP reference rate<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (last changes Sep & Oct 2023,\r\n100 basis-point cut in total)<\/td>\r\n | 5.75%<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nIndustrial output<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (year-on-year, Oct 24, GUS)<\/td>\r\n | 4.7%<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nConstruction output<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| (year-on-year, Oct 24, GUS)<\/td>\r\n | -9.6%<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n | \r\nPLN as of 29 Oct, NBP rate<\/strong><\/td>\r\n| \u00a31 = 5.1747; \u20ac1= 4.3043; \u00a0$1 =4.0770<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n <\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\nCommentary<\/strong>\r\n\r\nPoland\u2019s GDP growth in the year to Q3 2024 was 2.7%, down from 3.2% in the year to Q2. While the figures, reflecting lower investment and consumption are disappointing, analysts expect Q4 will see a bound back. CPI inflation fell in November\u2019s flash estimate to 4.6%, down from October\u2019s 5.0%, but again a bounce back is expected in December, with inflation expected to peak around 5.2% in Q1 2025, before making a significant retreat in H2 2025, once the base effect of this year\u2019s ending of the energy price cap works through.\r\n\r\nPoland\u2019s unemployment has fallen to a record low and remains the second-lowest in the EU after Czechia, and real wage growth \u2013 though slower than in previous months \u2013 continues to put more money in consumers\u2019 pockets. Retail sales rose in October,\r\n\r\nThe past month saw the Polish zloty gain ground against the pound, euro and dollar, once the markets had digested news of Trump\u2019s win.\r\n\r\nAbove-inflation wage growth has been a feature of the Polish labour market for several years, and the politically driven minimum wage is seen as problematic by manufacturers with large blue-collar workforces. From 1 January 2025, the statutory minimum wage will rise by a further 8.5% from 4,300 z\u0142 a month gross to 4,666z\u0142 at a time when inflation is expected to be still around 5%.\r\n\r\nAlthough the Polish government, formed a year ago, is seen as more business-friendly in its rhetoric, it is difficult to point to specific improvements in the overall business environment \u2013 other than the end of a constant stream of unpredictable and poorly considered legislation being pumped out by the parliament. However, given the fact that the government is, in effect, a coalition of three coalitions, and that the president represents the parliamentary opposition, this state of affairs is to be expected. The presidential election takes place in May 2025.\r\n\r\nQuestions facing investors in Poland centre around the future of Russian aggression; an end to hostilities would signal a major reconstruction boom in Ukraine, with Poland a natural logistics platform and partner for that process. Another area of uncertainty is the state of Western Europe\u2019s \u2013 specifically Germany\u2019s \u2013 economic prospects, as Poland\u2019s manufacturing depends heavily on those markets. Trade in goods for the first half of 2024 show Poland with a tiny surplus of \u20ac4.6 billion; the value of goods exported falling faster than that of imports. As of the first eight months of 2024, the UK is Poland\u2019s only Top Five export market to be growing both in value and in terms of its share in the overall structure of Polish exports.\r\n\r\nDemographics and the labour market\r\n\r\n<\/strong>Unemployment is likely to stay near record low levels; while firms are less likely to be recruiting this year, fewer young Poles will be entering the labour market. Wage pressure is likely to continue as retention of skilled employees continues to be a big worry for firms. Poland\u2019s largest age cohort, born in 1983, reaches the age of 41 this year (around 700,000 people); compare this demographic high-water mark to the number of 21-year-olds, born in 2003 \u2013 a mere 350,000. The number of labour-market entrants will continue to fall (280,000 Poles were born in 2023).\r\n\r\nPoland\u2019s unemployment is lowest in the cities and highest in rural areas. More than half of the long-term unemployed live in villages. Big disparities exist between cities where unemployment is extremely low (Katowice 1.0%, Pozna\u0144 1.1%, Warsaw 1.4%, Wroc\u0142aw 1.6%, Krak\u00f3w 2.0%, and Gda\u0144sk 2.6%), and small provincial towns where it remains in double digits. Szyd\u0142owiec district, 120km south of Warsaw, also in Mazowsze province, holds the record for Poland at 23.3%. Nearby Radom, a city of 200,000 people, also has high unemployment at 9.5%. New investors might wish to consider university cities such as \u0141\u00f3d\u017a (4.5%), Rzesz\u00f3w (4.0%), Lublin (3.9%) or Kielce (4.5%). All data from Oct 2024.\r\n\r\nUnemployment fell in September Lublin (down 0.3 percentage points), Wroc\u0142aw (down 0.1 percentage point); in other cities it\u2019s stable.\r\n\r\nThe zloty\r\n\r\n<\/strong>Although Poland notionally signed up to join the eurozone as part of its EU Accession Treaty, there was no mention of when, or at what rate. To do so, Poland must alter its constitution, which needs a two-thirds parliamentary majority. So Poland continues to linger on the fringes of the EU\u2019s core \u2013 and \u2013 importantly for its manufactured exports \u2013 it can control the competitiveness of its currency. The Brexit referendum resulted in a dramatic fall in value of the pound against the zloty. From June to October 2016, the pound fell from 5.60z\u0142 to 4.80z\u0142, a 14% drop. Since then, it has recovered; fluctuations result more from political turbulence than macroeconomic fundamentals. Over the past month, the zloty\/pound rate has continued to weaken against the pound, trading in the band 5.15z\u0142 and 5.25z\u0142 to the pound, as markets considered the implications of deepening debt and rising public-sector borrowing needs in the years 2025-28.\r\n\r\nA weaker zloty makes Polish exports more competitive as well as boosting Poland\u2019s attractiveness as a location for inbound foreign direct investment.\r\n\r\nUK-Polish trade<\/strong>\r\n\r\nOn the surface, Brexit has not hampered trade between Poland and the UK, with 2023 seeing record values of goods and services traded between the two economies. However, UK exports to Poland now include significant sales of fossil fuels substituting those Poland used to buy from Russia. Polish export growth to the UK mainly comes from larger exporters successfully replacing goods from Western European SMEs which no longer trade with the UK because of frictions arising due to the UK\u2019s departure from the single European market and Customs Union. These have made it much harder for small business to trade profitably with a third country.\r\n\r\nLinks:<\/strong>\r\n\r\nGUS<\/a> (Statistics Poland) English-language pages\r\nCentral Bank of Poland<\/a> English-language pages\r\nEurostat<\/a>","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[56,57],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[308],"class_list":["post-53875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-publications","author-bpcc_en","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"authors":[{"term_id":308,"user_id":0,"is_guest":1,"slug":"bpcc_en","display_name":"British Polish Chamber of Commerce","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Vertical_logotype_red_crown_transparent.png","url2x":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Vertical_logotype_red_crown_transparent.png"},"first_name":"","last_name":"","user_url":"","description":"Since 1992, the British-Polish Chamber of Commerce has been working on behalf of its member companies in two areas - business development and the business environment. By offering extensive networking opportunities - at events and through its digital media - the BPCC helps to connect companies for mutual tangible benefits. \r\n\r\nThe BPCC is the first point of contact for all investors who see Poland as a convenient location to start an investment. "}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53875","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53875"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53875\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53878,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53875\/revisions\/53878"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53875"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53875"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53875"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=53875"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}} | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |