{"id":60164,"date":"2025-05-07T10:08:28","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T08:08:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bpcc.org.pl\/?p=60164"},"modified":"2025-05-07T10:08:28","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T08:08:28","slug":"macroeconomic-overview-end-april-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/macroeconomic-overview-end-april-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Macroeconomic overview, end-April 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

The big picture for UK and foreign investors interested in Poland. Key macroeconomic indicators updated monthly.\u00a0 [GUS = G\u0142\u00f3wny Urz\u0105d Statistyczny \u2013 Statistics Poland]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
CPI inflation<\/strong><\/td>\n(y\/y, Apr 25, GUS, preliminary)<\/td>\n4.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Unemployment<\/strong><\/td>\n(claimant rate Mar 25, GUS)<\/td>\n5.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Unemployment<\/strong><\/td>\n(econ. inactive, Eurostat, Mar 25)<\/td>\n2.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GDP growth 2023<\/strong><\/td>\n(y\/y GUS, final)<\/td>\n0.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GDP growth 2024 <\/strong><\/td>\n(y\/y GUS, preliminary)<\/td>\n2.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GDP growth 2025 forecast<\/strong><\/td>\n(World Bank, Apr 25)<\/td>\n3.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Retail sales<\/strong><\/td>\n(y\/y to Mar 25, GUS)<\/td>\n-0.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Export of goods<\/strong><\/td>\n(2024, down 0.8% on 2023, GUS)<\/td>\n\u20ac350.4 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Import of goods<\/strong><\/td>\n(2024, up 1.9% on 2023, GUS)<\/td>\n\u20ac349.7 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average wages (private sector, monthly, gross)<\/strong><\/td>\n(GUS, Mar 25 \u2013 up 7.7% y-o-y)<\/td>\n9,056 PLN
\n(=\u20ac2,120 \/ \u00a31,810)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Statutory Minimum Wage (full-time, monthly, gross)<\/strong><\/td>\n(from Jan 25; up 10.0% from Jan 24)<\/td>\n4,666 PLN
\n(=\u20ac1,090 \/ \u00a3930)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NBP reference rate<\/strong><\/td>\n(last changes in Sep & Oct 2023,
\n100 basis-point cut in total)<\/td>\n		5.75%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Industrial output<\/strong><\/td>\n(year-on-year, Mar \u00a025, GUS)<\/td>\n2.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Construction output<\/strong><\/td>\n(year-on-year, Mar \u00a025, GUS)<\/td>\n-1.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PLN as of 2 May, NBP rate<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a31 = 5.0141; \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u20ac1 = 4.2750; \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0$1 = 3.7722<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P PMI<\/strong><\/td>\nMar 25: 50.2 (down from 50.7 in Feb 25)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Commentary<\/strong><\/p>\n

How\u2019s Poland\u2019s economy likely to fare by the end of 2025? As of the end of April, forecasts have tended to be revised downwards, but even so, a range from 3.1% (IMF) to 3.7% (National Bank of Poland) and even 3.9% (Ministry of Finance) suggests strong growth compared to Western European economies.<\/p>\n

Poland\u2019s economy did better than expected last year, with GDP growing by 2.9%. Inflation has peaked at 5.0% in March, retreating in April faster than expected, opening the door to hopes of lower borrowing costs. Wage inflation remains stubbornly high; recruitment and retention is a major issue for employers. On the positive side, manufacturing industry has recently ended its longest run of negative PMI readings (35 months in a row under the neutral score of 50, before returning into positive territory in February of this year for the first time since April 2022). The EU\u2019s sudden decision to massively boost spending on military production and infrastructure has raised manufacturers\u2019 spirits, though consumer spending saw an unexpected reversal in February and March.<\/p>\n

Unemployment (as of March) was the second-lowest in the EU (after Czechia), though the mismatch between Eurostat\u2019s economic inactivity-based data (2.7%) and the Polish government\u2019s data based on registered unemployment (5.3% in February) suggests that the cash-in-hand economy is growing once again. Overall productivity continues to grow much faster than in the Eurozone.<\/p>\n

Looking back at the past 20 years since Poland joined the EU, it is clear that Polish workers have done well over that time. Whilst inflation had doubled prices, wages have increased three-fold, representing an increase in spending power of over 50%. Contrast this situation with the UK, where real wages have not budged in 20 years.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Inflation is expected to weaken further once the base effect of the ending of the consumer energy price cap works through. Core inflation has already started falling, so by the second half of this year, the central bank should be able to begin the cycle of lowering base rates (assuming no black-swan events).<\/p>\n

The politically driven minimum wage is seen as problematic by manufacturers with large blue-collar workforces. From 1 January 2025, the statutory minimum wage rose by a further 8.5% from 4,300 z\u0142 a month gross to 4,666z\u0142 (from 1 July 2024), and up 10.0% from the 4,242z\u0142 it was on 1 January 2024, while inflation has risen by around 5%.<\/p>\n

Although the Polish government, formed in autumn 2023, is seen as more business-friendly in its rhetoric, it is still difficult to point to specific improvements in the overall business environment \u2013 other than ending the stream of unpredictable and poorly considered legislation pumped out during the previous parliament. However, given the fact that the government is, in effect, a coalition of three coalitions, and that the president represents the parliamentary opposition, this state of affairs is to be expected. The first round of the presidential election takes place on 18 May, the second round is likely to take place on 1 June.<\/p>\n

Questions facing investors in Poland centre on the future of Russian hostilities in Ukraine and the possibility of a ceasefire. An end to the shooting war would signal a major reconstruction boom in Ukraine, with Poland a natural logistics platform and partner for that process. Another area of uncertainty is the state of Western Europe\u2019s \u2013 specifically Germany\u2019s \u2013 economic prospects, as Poland\u2019s manufacturing depends heavily on German customers, in a supply chain that has a significant exposure to the US market.<\/p>\n

The US is Poland\u2019s seventh-largest export market and third-largest import source; last year, Poland had a $5.9 billion deficit in trade in goods with the US. How this will ultimately be affected by Trump\u2019s tariffs is as yet incalculable.<\/p>\n

Overall trade in goods for the first half of 2024 show Poland with a tiny surplus of \u20ac4.6 billion; the value of goods exported falling faster than that of imports. In 2024, the UK was Poland\u2019s only Top Four export market to have grown both in value (up by 5.5%) and in terms of its share in the overall structure of Polish exports of goods (up from 5.0% to 5.3%); this trend continued into January 2025.<\/p>\n

Demographics and the labour market<\/strong><\/p>\n

Unemployment is likely to stay near record low levels; while firms are less likely to be recruiting this year, fewer young Poles will be entering the labour market. Wage pressure is likely to continue as retention of skilled employees continues to be a big worry for firms. Poland\u2019s largest age cohort, born in 1983, reaches the age of 42 this year (around 700,000 people); compare this demographic high-water mark to the number of 22-year-olds, born in 2003 \u2013 a mere 350,000. The number of labour-market entrants will continue to fall (fewer than 300,000 Poles were born in 2024).<\/p>\n

Poland\u2019s unemployment is lowest in the cities and highest in rural areas. More than half of the long-term unemployed live in villages. Big disparities exist between cities where unemployment is extremely low (Katowice 1.2%, Pozna\u0144 1.2%, Warsaw 1.4%, Wroc\u0142aw 1.8%, Krak\u00f3w 2.2%, and Gda\u0144sk 2.7%), and small provincial towns where it remains in double digits. Szyd\u0142owiec district, 120km south of Warsaw, also in Mazowsze province, holds the record for Poland at 22.6%. Nearby Radom, a city of 200,000 people, also has high unemployment at 9.7%. New investors might wish to consider university cities such as Szczecin (3.7%), \u0141\u00f3d\u017a (4.5%), Rzesz\u00f3w (4.1%), Lublin (4.3%) or Kielce (4.8%). All data from March 2025.<\/p>\n

Unemployment has risen since February in Gda\u0144sk (up by 0.1 percentage point), and has fallen in \u0141\u00f3d\u017a (down by 0.3 percentage points) and Lublin (down by 0.1 percentage point). In Warsaw, Wroc\u0142aw, Krak\u00f3w, Katowice, Pozna\u0144, Kielce, Rzesz\u00f3w and Szczecin it has remained stable.<\/p>\n

The zloty<\/strong><\/p>\n

Although Poland notionally signed up to join the eurozone as part of its EU Accession Treaty, there was no mention of when, or at what rate. To do so, Poland must alter its constitution, which needs a two-thirds parliamentary majority. So Poland continues to linger on the fringes of the EU\u2019s core \u2013 and \u2013 importantly for its manufactured exports \u2013 it can control the competitiveness of its currency. The Brexit referendum resulted in a dramatic fall in value of the pound against the zloty. From June to October 2016, the pound fell from 5.60z\u0142 to 4.80z\u0142, a 14% drop. Since then, it has recovered; fluctuations result more from political turbulence than macroeconomic fundamentals. Over the past four months, the zloty had strengthened against the pound, trading in the band 4.99z\u0142- 5.05z\u0142 to the pound.<\/p>\n

A weaker zloty makes Polish exports more competitive as well as boosting Poland\u2019s attractiveness as a location for inbound foreign direct investment.<\/p>\n

UK-Polish trade<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the surface, Brexit has not hampered trade between Poland and the UK, with 2024 witnessing yet another record in the value of goods and services traded between the two economies. However, UK exports to Poland now include significant sales of fossil fuels substituting those Poland used to buy from Russia. Polish export growth to the UK mainly comes from its larger exporters successfully replacing goods from Western European SMEs which no longer trade with the UK because of frictions arising due to the UK\u2019s departure from the single European market and Customs Union. These have made it much harder for small business to trade profitably with a third country.<\/p>\n

Links:<\/strong><\/p>\n

GUS<\/a> (Statistics Poland) English-language pages
\nCentral Bank of Poland<\/a> English-language pages
\nEurostat<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The big picture for UK and foreign investors interested in Poland. Key macroeconomic indicators updated monthly.\u00a0 [GUS = G\u0142\u00f3wny Urz\u0105d Statistyczny \u2013 Statistics Poland] CPI inflation (y\/y, Apr 25, GUS, preliminary) 4.2% Unemployment (claimant rate Mar 25, GUS) 5.3% Unemployment (econ. inactive, Eurostat, Mar 25) 2.7% GDP growth 2023 (y\/y GUS, final) 0.1% GDP growth […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24251,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[57,56],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[308],"class_list":["post-60164","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publications","category-news","author-bpcc_en","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"authors":[{"term_id":308,"user_id":0,"is_guest":1,"slug":"bpcc_en","display_name":"British Polish Chamber of Commerce","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Vertical_logotype_red_crown_transparent.png","url2x":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Vertical_logotype_red_crown_transparent.png"},"first_name":"","last_name":"","user_url":"","description":"Since 1992, the British-Polish Chamber of Commerce has been working on behalf of its member companies in two areas - business development and the business environment. By offering extensive networking opportunities - at events and through its digital media - the BPCC helps to connect companies for mutual tangible benefits. \r\n\r\nThe BPCC is the first point of contact for all investors who see Poland as a convenient location to start an investment. "}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60164","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60164"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60164\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60169,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60164\/revisions\/60169"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60164"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60164"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60164"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev2.bpcc.org.pl\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=60164"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}